Satellite Pictures | Marine Services | Forecast Products | Contacts
Monthly Forecast

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 2011 AND WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2012 
This statement gives information about the current state of climate systems and weather during the month of January 2012 and outlook of climate systems and rainfall for February 2012. 

1. REVIEW OF JANUARY 2012 WEATHER AND CLIMATE SYSTEMS
1.1. CLIMATE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS
During the month of January 2011, southern hemisphere high pressure cells, St Helena and Mascarine anticyclones were relatively strong while Siberian high and the associated Arabian continued to be intense. This maintained the rain-making mechanism i.e. Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the southern part of the country. Cool Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) conditions have been established over the Equatorial central-eastern Pacific, while slight warm SSTs were observed over eastern Indian Ocean (areas around Indonesia) and the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Northeasterly to northwesterly low level wind prevailed over eastern parts of the country during much of period. Westerly winds were also observed during the month contributing to convergence over the southern part of the country which led to enhanced activities over the southwestern highlands, west, central, southern region and southern coast. 

1.2 JANUARY 2011 RAINFALL
During the month of January 2012, normal to above normal rainfall conditions were observed over southern coast and southern region while normal to below rainfall conditions were observed mainly over Southwestern highlands and central areas. On the other hand extremely below normal rainfall conditions were observed over the Lake Victoria region, western, northeastern highland, northern coast and Unguja and Pemba islands. Moreover, higher maximum temperatures were observed over Moshi and KIA observing stations.

2. OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2012
2.1 WEATHER AND CLIMATE SYSTEMS
For the coming month of February 2012, the Azores High, and the Siberian High and the associated Arabian ridge are expected to remain intense. The Mascarine and St Helena high pressure systems are expected to gradually becoming strong thus slightly set off the northward movement of the rain making mechanisms (ITCZ).
Below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected over central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral to slightly warm SSTs conditions are expected to prevail over the great part of the Indian Ocean, including southwestern Indian Ocean. Southeasterly low level winds are expected to dominate during the month. Moreover, Tropical Cyclone season has already started and five tropical cyclones have been observed. 

2.2 RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2012
During the this month mainly normal rainfall condition are expected over the most part of the country:
Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera, Mwanza, Mara and Shinyanga regions): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Western regions (Kigoma, Rukwa and Tabora regions): These areas are expected to experience normal to below normal rains.
Northern coast (Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Tanga regions, the isles of Unguja and Pemba): The areas are expected to experience normal rains.
Central areas (Dodoma and Singida regions): These areas are expected to feature normal to below normal rains.
Northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): These areas are expected to feature normal to below normal rains.
Southwestern highlands (Southern Rukwa, Iringa and Mbeya region): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Southern Coast (Mtwara and Lindi regions): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Southern region (Ruvuma region): These areas are expected to feature normal rains