WEATHER REVIEW FOR DEKAD 03 (21TH–31ST JANUARY 2012)
AND OUTLOOK FOR DEKAD 04 (01ST –10TH FEBRUARY, 2012)

1.1 WEATHER REVIEW FOR DEKAD 03 (21TH–31ST JANUARY 2012
During the third dekad of January, 2012, the Northern hemisphere high pressure cells, the Azores high, Siberian high and its associated Arabian continue to be intense. This maintained the rain-making mechanism i.e. Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the south. The southern hemisphere high pressure cells, St Helena and the Mascarine were relatively strong. Cool Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) conditions were established over the Equatorial central-eastern Pacific, while neutral to slightly warm SSTs were observed over eastern Indian Ocean (areas around Indonesia) and central equatorial Indian Ocean. Northeasterly and occasionally northwesterly low level wind prevailed over eastern parts of the country during much of period. Westerly winds were also observed during the dekad which resulted into convergence over the southern sector of the country enhancing activities over the southwestern highlands, western and southern areas. During this dekad two tropical disturbance FUNSO and ETHEL were observed over the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar respectively. The two systems triggered active weather over the southern sector of the country.
1.2 WEATHER SUMMARY FOR DEKAD 04 (01ST –10TH FEBRUARY, 2012)
In the third dekad of January, 2012 significant amounts of rainfall were observed over most part of southwestern highlands, southern region and southern coast. Moderate thundershowers were also observed over Central, southern Morogoro and western regions. However, mainly dry conditions prevailed over the most part of the northeastern highlands, Lake, Northern coast and Unguja and Pemba islands. High temperatures were observed of over northeastern highlands especially over KIA and Moshi observing Stations; this was attributed by the intensification of Arabian ridge which continued to push dry hot air mass towards the northern sector of the country
1.3 WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DEKAD 04 (01ST –10TH FEBRUARY, 2012)
1.3.1 EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SITUATION
For the coming dekad, the Azores High, and the Siberian High and the associated Arabian ridge are expected to remain intense. The Mascarine and St Helena high pressure systems are expected to gradually becoming strong thus slightly set off the northward movement of the rain making mechanisms (ITCZ). Below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected over central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral to slightly warm SSTs conditions are expected to prevail over the great part of the Indian Ocean, including southwestern Indian Ocean. Northeasterly to northwesterly low level winds are expected to dominate over the most parts of the country during the dekad.

1.3.2 EXPECTED WEATHER OUTLOOK 04 (01ST –10TH FEBRUARY, 2012)
Rainfall is expected to continue over unimodal areas and mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail over the bimodal areas, moreover few showers are expected during the second part of the dekad over the Northern coast areas.
Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera, Mwanza, Mara and Shinyanga regions): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Western regions (Kigoma, Rukwa and Tabora regions): These areas are expected to experience normal to below normal rains.
Northern coast (Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Tanga regions, the isles of Unguja and Pemba): The areas are expected to experience normal rains.
Central areas (Dodoma and Singida regions): These areas are expected to feature normal to below normal rains.
Northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): These areas are expected to feature normal to below normal rains.
Southwestern highlands (Southern Rukwa, Iringa and Mbeya region): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Southern Coast (Mtwara and Lindi regions): These areas are expected to feature normal rains.
Southern region (Ruvuma region): These areas are expected to feature normal rains